Reality Check, Markets! 2013 VS Today.

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Reality Check, Markets! 2013 VS Today.

Remember 2013 ? Federal Reserve started its bond tapering and our markets fell viciously, like every other market in the world. Change in monetary policy stances, In accordance with a likely tapering of bond purchases & fears of inflation, is beginning to strain the international finance markets. Bond yields have risen sharply in both Advance & Emerging Market Economies. China’s Evergrande group fiasco continues to sour the mood.

The US dollar has strengthened sharply while Emerging Market currencies have weakened since early September, with capital outflows in recent weeks.

Is it different today, are we better off than 2013?

Let us examine some key data points & evaluate various facts. In 2013, we were a part of the “fragile five”. Our Current Account Deficit was high. It had touched 4.8%. As on 31st March 2021, it has ended in a modest surplus of 0.9% of GDP (Gross domestic product) .This surely is very heartening, Today GDP is fully financed by stable flows & hence there is no pressure on rupee.

Although fiscal deficit is high , it is not much of a concern today. While the huge foreign exchange reserves cannot protect the country from shocks, it would definitely help in keeping order. In FY21, India added over $100 billion to its forex reserves, which are still growing in FY22 so far & are at $637.5 billion today. This is more than double the level in 2013 when it was $292 billion, despite desperate measures taken by RBI to attract inflows.

 

Markets Become Volatile, If There Is Dollar Outflow.

In such a scenario RBI may enter the forex markets to contain the volatility and may not use any monetary policy instruments, as were used earlier. Such a huge & qualitative shift in policy mindset & pattern.

As an economy we are in a much healthier position then what we were in 2013.

 

Look At Some Of These Data Points

 

  • PMI (Purchase Manager’s Index) is higher in September, than in August’21Service sector continues to expand
  • CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation is trending down & is firmly within RBI’s target zone of 2-6%
  • WPI (Wholesale Price Index) is still high but the direction of change has been down
  • GST Collections are robust.
  • Exports have crossed the $30 billion mark for seventh straight month.
  • Cement production is up.
  • Our growth has been forecasted at 9.5% by both RBI & IMF.

 

All high frequency indicators point to gathering economic momentum. Credit growth & rising energy prices are the only worries, at this point in time.

 

Summing up, today our economy is on a very sound footing and definitely in a lot better position than where we were in 2013.Total insulation from global currents is a delusion. But presently both GOI & RBI seems to be working in tandem and this will help minimize the impact….The elephant, has started to dance!

 

IMPORTANCE AND ADVANTAGES OF FOLLOWING ASSET ALLOCATION FOR ANY INVESTOR

Asset Allocation

Asset Allocation is an investment strategy which aims at investing in different assets classes (groups of different financial instruments) that helps in balancing the risk and returns in a portfolio in accordance to the investor’s goals, risk tolerance and investment horizon.

These are the different types of investments you should know about: For Example
• Stocks – You get this asset when you put money into a specific company. Essentially, when you buy shares, you’re getting pieces of that organization’s earnings and assets. Businesses sell stocks to raise funds. Shareholders get money by selling the stock for a higher price when its value increases. Another way to earn through this investment is through dividends, which the company regularly distributes to investors.
• Bonds – With this type, the bond issuer loans the money that you invested for their venture and repays the credit with interest. These investments have fewer risks, but also lower returns than stocks. You earn regularly through the organization’s payments.
• Mutual Funds – If you aren’t too keen on having to go through the trouble of finding the right combination of assets, mutual funds enable you to buy different investments in just one Portfolio. These organizations pool money from investors and use that amount to buy stocks and bonds through a professional manager.

Each asset Class carries with it a certain level of risk and expected return.

The importance of asset allocation lies in the overall risk-return performance of your portfolio.

Both asset allocation and rebalancing your portfolio when required, play an important part in having a well diversified and a disciplined portfolio. The number of benefits provided by these 2 relatively straightforward investment strategies is immense

1. Lower investment risk

A diversified portfolio will be exposed to lower investment risk, because the growth prospects are not limited to one risky security, but rather a basket of both risky and non-risky securities, across equity, debt, gold and real estate.
2. Low dependence on a single asset for returns within an asset class

Not all assets within a single asset class e.g. equity, perform well at the same time. This is what makes it important to choose different stocks and different categories of mutual funds, e.g. large cap, value style and so forth, and allocate funds efficiently even within the same category.

3. Protection from Market Turbulence

Anybody who has lived and invested through the sub-prime mortgage crisis knows that when equity caused the ground to fall out from under our feet, debt and gold kept investors’ heads above water. For those who had pure equity portfolios, it was a mistake they will likely never make again. A well diversified i.e. a well allocated portfolio will afford you protection and offer you growth even during times of volatility.

4. Freedom from timing the market

Consider timing a single asset class’s market. Those investors who try to actively time the equity markets can testify to its volatility. Now imagine timing the performance and market movement across different asset classes. Investing without stress is not hard to achieve, if you remove timing the market, or markets, and implement a disciplined strategy.


Asset Allocation is also different for investors with different goal time horizons.

For somebody with a short term investment horizon i.e. 3 – 5 years or less, it is advisable to allocate more funds towards fixed income, and allocate fewer funds in your portfolio to riskier assets such as gold or equity.

For a medium term investment horizon i.e. more than 5 years, your allocation to riskier asset classes can increase, to take advantage of the higher risk-reward ratio that these classes offer. However, maintain a healthy allocation to fixed income with low risk to balance your portfolio as your investment horizon reduces.

For a longer term investment horizon i.e. closer to 10 years, you can allocate a higher proportion of your funds to riskier asset classes, to take advantage of the power of compounding in your longer time horizon. Maintain some exposure, if not too high, to fixed income and gold to provide safe, fixed returns and to hedge against the risks of equity and inflation.


Asset allocation strategies can be

Conservative Moderate Aggressive
with more exposure to debt balance between debt and equity more exposure to equity

Determining the right asset allocation strategy will help you to successfully meet your long-term or short-term financial goals. For example, for long-term goals, an aggressive asset allocation strategy with more exposure to equity mutual funds may be preferred as it helps generate higher potential returns, while reducing risk and beating inflation. It may be better to invest in safer options or follow a conservative asset allocation strategy for short-term goals. Determining the right strategy will help you strike this balance.


Strategic asset allocation is a long term relatively passive approach. A fixed percentage of the portfolio is held in each asset class, usually via ETFs. The portfolio is rebalanced at regular intervals, or when it gets too far out of line with the desired allocations. The extent to which the portfolio is diversified will depend on the time horizon of the investor and their specific investment goals. Over time small incremental changes may be made to the asset allocation model, usually to reduce the risk as an investor approaches retirement age.


Tactical asset allocation is a more active approach in which allocations are adjusted based on market conditions and the relative valuations of various asset classes. This approach is often used within the equity portion of a fund to move capital from overvalued to undervalued sectors, countries or regions. Doing this effectively can significantly improve the risk-reward profile of a portfolio.
Tactical asset allocation can also be implemented by using momentum. With this approach the allocation to each asset class only remains invested when prices are rising. A moving average can be used as a trailing stop, and when the relevant instrument’s price falls below the moving average the allocation is moved to cash or another asset class.

Asset allocation decisions often have more impact on a portfolio’s performance than individual security selection. Combining uncorrelated assets can, not only reduce volatility but improve returns over time. A traditional asset mix will contain equities, bonds and cash. Adding alternative assets like real estate and hedge funds, especially Big Data and Artificial Intelligence driven vehicles like the Data Intelligence Fund, can provide a unique opportunity to further reduce volatility.





5 Reasons you need a Financial Advisor

Health is wealth. Good health is not just the absence of any illness, but complete physical and mental wellness of an individual.

In today’s world, stress affects both physical and mental health – and one contributor to stress is the state an individual’s finances.

We all have financial goals we want to reach, and savings just don’t cut it. It’s important to invest. While we invest, how do we know we’re doing the right thing for our goals?

Here’s where your financial doctor, or advisor, comes into the picture. Just like you need a doctor for your physical or mental health, you need one for your finances too.

So, how can your financial doctor help you?

  1. Understand your financial health –Your financial advisor will work with you to assess your current financial health – your assets, liabilities, income and expenses. He/she will also consider any expected future obligations (insurance, taxes, other long-term expenses) and sources of income (pension, gifts, etc.) to get a complete picture of where you stand.
  2. Assess your goals –Once your advisor maps out where you stand, he/she will understand your investment goals, time frame and risk appetite. An understanding of risk appetite will allow your advisor to determine your asset allocation. He/she will also assess your retirement needs at this stage. Invest now
  3. Build the financial plan –The next stage is where your advisor charts out a comprehensive financial plan for your goals. This plan will include details such as where to invest, how much to invest, for how long to invest. He/she has the expertise to understand how all these products will work in tandem for you to achieve your goals. The plan will also look at your retirement plan, your projected withdrawal rates during retirement and have the best- and worst-case scenarios for your expected life span. If you’re already investing for your goals, your advisor will review your current habits and suggest a course of action. If you’re investing without goals in mind, your advisor will help you allocate your existing investments for your goals. Read why goal-based investing is important here. Once your plan is ready, it’s on you to implement it.
  4. Help you understand where you’re investing –When building your financial plan, it is important to understand the products you’re investing in. The pros and cons, how it fits in your portfolio, what it can do for you – your advisor will help you with this.
  5. Regular reviews and adjustments –It’s a good idea to revisit your investments regularly to check if you’re on track, review what you’re doing and see if you need to adjust your plan to incorporate new goals or modify/remove existing ones. Depending on your needs, your advisor will suggest changes to take you closer to your goals.

Financial advisors are the doctors you need for your financial health. With their expertise, you can get the best out of your investments.